The listed property company with the highest population growth is Hibernia, from Ireland. It is projected to have a population increase of no less than 12.6 per cent in ten years. This will support absolute and relative rental- and valuation growth for its real estate markets.
The table below highlights the top ten REITs by population growth in our universe of 65 European REITs and listed property companies. This is the growth from 2020 to 2030, as a percentage and as a min/max normalised KR&A score, between one and six (low and high population growth). As the United Kingdom no longer supplies population growth projection data to our sources, we have not considered UK REITs. Numbers are based on regional population growth and weighted by gross leasable area (GLA). The below numbers are based on the portfolios published by the companies in the calendar year 2021. Clients have full access to the numbers per asset.
Top 10 European listed property companies by population growth projection 2020-2030
| Property Company | Country of Listing | Sector | Population % 2020 - 2030 |
Population % 2020-2030 (KR&A Score) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Catena |
Sweden |
Logistics |
7.9 |
5.9 |
|
Kungsleden |
Sweden |
Diversified |
7.9 |
5.9 |
|
Castellum |
Sweden |
Diversified |
8.0 |
6.0 |
|
Nextensa |
Belgium |
Diversified |
8.0 |
5.9 |
|
Corem/Klovern |
Sweden |
Industrial/Office |
8.2 |
6.0 |
|
Inm. Colonial |
Spain |
Office |
8.4 |
5.9 |
|
Wallenstam |
Sweden |
Diversified |
8.6 |
6.0 |
|
Entra |
Norway |
Office |
9.9 |
6.0 |
|
Fabege |
Sweden |
Office |
10.1 |
6.0 |
|
Hibernia |
Ireland |
Office |
12.6 |
6.0 |
Regional differences quantified
The population growth projection numbers differ strongly per region. The most substantial regional growth projections can be found in Trier and Giessen, in Germany. We also have the absolute numbers per region, and they will provide a different picture. For percentual winners, it is easier if you come from a low base. Investors should bear in mind that these numbers are not always the result of sound demographic modelling but may contain some wishful thinking here and there. Which may benefit the region, for example, through help with Federal subsidies for infrastructure. Half of the top ten below consist of French and Spanish islands.
| Country | Region | Population % 2020 - 2030 |
Population % 2020-2030 (KR&A Score) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Germany |
Trier, Kreisfreie Stadt |
41.6 |
6.0 |
|
Germany |
Gießen, Landkreis |
30.5 |
6.0 |
|
Spain |
El Hierro |
27.4 |
6.0 |
|
France |
Mayotte |
26.9 |
6.0 |
|
Germany |
Saale-Holzland-Kreis |
26.3 |
6.0 |
|
Spain |
Fuerteventura |
25.1 |
6.0 |
|
Germany |
Neumünster, Kreisfreie Stadt |
24.8 |
6.0 |
|
Spain |
La Palma |
24.7 |
6.0 |
|
France |
Guyane |
21.7 |
6.0 |
|
Romania |
Ilfov |
21.6 |
6.0 |
The weakest regions in terms of population growth are also listed below. This list features Croatian, Bulgarian, Rumanian and Baltic regions that are expected to shrink by 17-20% in ten years.
Top 10 European regions by percentual population decline projection 2020 – 2030
| Country | Region | Population % 2020 - 2030 |
Population % 2020-2030 (KR&A Score) |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Croatia |
Vukovarsko-srijemska zup. |
(19.6) |
1.0 |
|
Bulgaria |
Vidin |
(19.3) |
1.0 |
|
Latvia |
Latgale |
(18.5) |
1.0 |
|
Romania |
Teleorman |
(18.4) |
1.0 |
|
Bulgaria |
Smolyan |
(18.4) |
1.0 |
|
Lithuania |
Utenos apskritis |
(17.8) |
1.0 |
|
Lithuania |
Panevezia apskritis |
(17.6) |
1.0 |
|
Croatia |
Pozesko-slavonska zup. |
(17.5) |
1.0 |
|
Latvia |
Vidzeme |
(17.3) |
1.0 |
|
Croatia |
Sisack-moslavacka zup. |
(17.0) |
1.0 |
